Eurovision predictions
From neither an expert nor a rabid fan (88)
Since the beginning of the year, there’s been a steady drip of articles on my phone’s news feed about the Eurovision Song Competition.
I occasionally click on a headline (which doubtless keeps the topic alive) and I will watch the broadcasts this week if we have our tv connected in time (which is looking unlikely). I am fascinated by the socio/cultural implications of the event itself (it’s a big deal) and find the spectacle somewhat amusing.
All in all, then, I would say I’m more interested in Eurovision than the average person - certainly more so than the average American - but far from a rabid fan (did not head off to Barcelona to attend parties with some of the artists, have no plans to go to a watch party here in Lisbon should one exist, certainly not going to Liverpool for the actual event). If my newsfeed is any indication, there are plenty of rabid fans out there.
On February 25, Portugal became the 37th and final country to choose its entry to this year’s ESC, two months after Ukraine got the ball rolling on December 17. Since then, there have been pre-competition parties in a variety of cities, interviews with the artists, betting odds, rumors, and all manner of other news breathlessly reported on innumerable websites.
Given the four+ months of hype leading up to this week, the actual competition goes surprisingly quickly: it hasn’t yet begun and by Saturday there will be a winner. Portugal took two weeks to decide on its entry (and announced the songs that would be competing for the honor way back on November 9), but the Main Event will be over in five days.
The first semi-final is on Tuesday (tomorrow) and Mimicat, representing Portugal, will perform in the fifth spot. Ten of the 15 competitors from this heat will move on to Saturday’s Grand Final where they will be joined by ten more acts from Thursday’s semi plus the six countries who received automatic bids to the final: the Big Five - France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and United Kingdom, who skip the semi-finals every year1 - and defending champ Ukraine2. There will be a total of 26 performances in Saturday’s Grand Final, where this year’s winner will be named.
For the 31 acts competing in Tuesday and Thursday’s semi-finals, the first goal is to advance to Saturday. Because 20 of the 31 entries will do so, the bar is not super high. In the end, though, there can only be one winner; and there is no official recognition for anything other than the champion - no silver or bronze medals, no podium photo for the scrapbook. Which means 25 of Saturday’s performers will go home with only memories to show3.
As is the case with many sports, some countries are in it to win it and others are simply happy to be on stage. If Italy or Germany don’t finish in the top 15, it’s probably a disappointment. Whereas only 7 of the 12 Portuguese entrants have even advanced to the Grand Final since 2008, when ESC switched to its current two Semi-finals format.
I promised predictions
I’m going on record - for the six of you who are still reading this - to make some predictions.
I both like and appreciate Mimicat’s Ai Coração. It’s a great song. It’s catchy. It’s an excellent example of cabaret. It was certainly the best option from the 20 available during the Festival da Canção.
From some rehearsal photos that have been released online, we get a sense of how tomorrow’s performance will look.
It’s clear things will be lively. The dancers will doubtless be all over the stage. And there’s a lot of red. Given there’s no visible set or props, the overall look relies heavily on lighting, which appears impressive. The feather dress is quite a thing.
I like the fact that they seem to be tinkering with elements of their performance between rehearsals. Mimicat made a couple of choreography and costume tweaks between the first round and finals of Portugal’s Festival da Canção, where most other artists did not. And reports are that she made changes between rehearsals in Liverpool as well. At age 38, she’s been in the business longer than many of her competitors and her professionalism is evident.
The song is good enough that it shouldn’t slip through the cracks and be forgotten. But that’s not sufficient to rise to the top given the competition.
As we discussed before, there are two sources of votes for these songs: general phone in votes from ordinary people, and votes from juries representing each country. I think this song will play better with juries. I don't think it’s big enough or different enough to stand out from the other entries for the regular voters.
I don’t see it finishing in the top ten. I think top 15 is possible, maybe as high as 12. But I wouldn’t be surprised if it ends up around 18. Call it 15 +/- 3.4
To get a sense of what I mean, compare Portugal’s photos to this (weird) entry from our Finnish friend:
It’s HUGE. How does he even get up on that box? How is his shadow so gargantuan? How do the people inside the box get out of the box (or do they)? So many questions that only watching the performance will answer. It’s several orders of magnitude larger than Portugal’s entry. That sort of spectacle seems to resonate with Eurovision viewers.
And here’s Sweden:
Again, it just seems more grandiose. Smoke! Large objects above and below! Inexplicably long fingernails! It also helps that Loreen, the artist, won Eurovision for Sweden in 2012; she knows how to reach the Eurovision demo.
Portugal’s performers look tiny on the huge Eurovision stage. Other acts take more advantage of the size they’ve been given to work with. I wonder why. Is it a matter of budget? If so, who determines the budget? Some of the set pieces look quite high tech and/or involve pyrotechnics, none of which seem cheap.
Or is it more about artistic decisions? In which case, who makes those calls?
Regardless, it is what it is and I don’t think the staging does Mimicat any favors.
Norway’s entry is closer to Portugal in its staging but the song has a lot of traction with a young singer and a strong feminist theme that should speak to the core Eurovision voting demo. So I envision a strong showing for Scandinavia this year.
Here, then, are my predictions for the top ten, broken into two groups of five:
Top five in no particular order5
Sweden** - heavy favorite to win; Loreen’s style doesn’t appeal to me (I can only understand what she’s saying if I read along with her), but I see why the song is popular
Finland - strong probability of a second-place finish; also not appealing to me but the green bolero has fans
Spain - has an arab/middle eastern vibe that highlights the vocals and makes this one pop right from the opening notes; lyrics aren’t extensive but they’re heart-breaking
France - lush; sultry; lyrics seem to be at odds with the mood, which is interesting
Norway** - likeable singer, message tailored to the Eurovision demo, helps that the other Scandinavian entries are favorites
Next five, in no particular order
Austria** - a humorous social commentary on gender
Israel** - another in the “doesn’t do much for me but I’m not the target demo” category
UK** - in the Taylor Swift “breakup anger, lay it out there” vein. Plus, fingernails.
Ukraine** - little has changed geopolitically since last year’s win
Czechia** - the staging on their official video creeps me out but this one gets a lot of buzz
** performed (mostly or completely) in English
Portugal’s entry should be strong enough to advance to Saturday’s Grand Final but given the competition, a top 12-15 finish is about the best we can hope for. Given Portugal’s history in the ESC, though, that would be a pretty good result.
That’s all for now.
Love from Lisbon,
Scott (& Amy)
These countries are the largest financial contributors to the European Broadcasting Union, the network that airs the competition, and, as such, are guaranteed a slot in the Grand Final.
Technically, Ukraine qualifies because they are the host nation. Since the host nation is the previous year’s winner, it’s usually six of one, half a dozen of the other. This year, the competition is taking place in England because war-torn Ukraine is not in a position to host.
Though this will likely be a career boost for most/all of them.
When she thinks about it, Amy is rooting heavily for it to win the whole thing. She can’t conceive of any reasonable human being considering any other song.
Links will take you to the Eurovisionworld.com page where you can view lyrics and videos of the songs if you wish.